Falcon, Lincoln and Mustang, and RWD

[Nikked]

Falcon, Lincoln and Mustang, and RWD:

It seems that the Falcon is going to share something in common with other models, yes that is a fact. One Ford is an aim of reducing specific parts, so that profits are higher, and development costings shared over multiple projects. You could argue, that the territory is already a working example of One Ford existing in Australia.

But there is much speculation that the future of the falcon lies within sharing a platform with something US based. Its often considered (mainly by media) that it will be a re-badge of the Taurus, but, there are slim chances of that, more later.

Working on a theory of the Falcon sharing with the Mustang, and a speculated RWD Lincoln platform carries some weight. The Mustang is the only other car currently produced by Ford anywhere, that shares similar drive train layouts to the falcon, with the 2015 mustang even going to gain a 4 cyl Eco Boost.

Lincoln have expressed interest in a model, based on the suspected future mustang platform.

Lincoln product planners would very much like to get their hands on this new RWD platform with the goal of building a new flagship sedan.Lincoln is currently struggling and its most direct rival, Cadillac, has several models with RWD. Their entry-level ATS, for example, should give the BMW 3 Series a run for its money along with other German competitors.

Carbuzz

Now, we a possibility of a RWD sedan, and a possible basis for a future falcon.


And should be pointed out, that Ford Australia have been praised for there development work. With the T6 (and Everest SUV derivative), Figo, EcoSport and a Small China Market car, all developed at Broadmeadows.

And, there has been small whispers of Ford Au being involved in the Mustang its self, and "other" projects, both for local, and overseas use.

Remember the "Mad Max" show cars? Seems a bit funny that they were developed solely as just a what if for Max's new ride...both concepts share many similarities with the proposed styling direction of the Mustang...

Mad Max Concepts

However, she refused to comment on what role - if any - the Ford Australia team may or may not play in the future of the Mustang moving forward.

"Our design team in Australia are involved in a whole range of programs, some of which may never see the light of day in Australia. They are no longer just involved in designing cars just for Australia."

Drive

“They are contributing to major programs that we are working on, whether they are sold in Australia or not,” Mr Mays said in Paris. “We have got them involved in four different programs at the moment.

Next Falcon is just starting to shape up, and they’re contributing to that as well. We have a global team, and a global design competition on the design programs, and the Broad meadows team, along with Cologne and Dearborn, are all working on derivatives.”

Goauto

FORD has underlined the key strategic importance of its Australian manufacturing and engineering operations, amid ongoing concerns surrounding falling Falcon sales and its future viability.

The Melbourne-developed T6 Ranger and Figo light car – the latter a runaway success in India, with annual sales exceeding 75,000 units – were singled out as the only examples Ford could talk about now, although “many more projects are under development”, according to Mr Baumbick.

Go Auto


Draw what ever conclusions you want, but, there are some very positive signs for Ford Australia, and the post 2016 falcon. Under One Ford, unit production costs will go down. And the Falcon is already gaining common components to other platforms (EUCD etc)

And for those thinking about the Mondeo or Taurus being the replacement of choice...

Using Road_Warrior's "Taurus Theory", you can count out the current Taurus as a direct replacement.

The D3 platform is an SUV platform developed initially by Volvo but Ford borrowed it and substituted its more expensive parts (alloy suspension arms) for pressed steel units to keep costs down.
Secondly, the Taurus, along with the rest of its platform-mates, is built only in LHD configuration. This means that, in order to allow it to be complied and sold for use on public roads in Australia, Ford would need to stump up the cash for the design, engineering, testing and certification to make the vehicle in RHD form, purely to allow it to be sold in our market. This is a physical barrier that can not be overlooked and would be a deal breaker in itself

.

Taurus Theory link*unable to link, "falconforums" is deemed a bad word on AFF



Then there is the Mondeo, a car already sold here in Australia, and doesn't match falcon sales. There will be little chance of it making up 1400-odd monthly sales, on top, of what it all ready sells.

Then, you have the Territory and Ute to replace...

And, finally, to close...

On a global scale, the falcon is not doing as bad as what many believe.

Falcon 2011 sales: 18,741
Total Australian market 2011: 1,008,437

Falcon sales consists of 1.8% of the market share...

Now, in America...

Mustang 2011 sales: 70,438
Taurus 2011 sales: 63,526
Total US market: 12.8 million

So those figures show that the Mustang only holds .5% of market share...whilst the Taurus only .4%...

When looked at like that, the Falcon is doing quite good in Australia, selling just under 3 times more % of units then the mustang, and more importantly, the Taurus...

So, the falcon (profit margins aside) has some viability due to market share, something Ford Au can't loose.

[FPV GTHO]

If Mondeo was the replacement, i'm confident it would be able to pickup a large amount of the vacuum left by Falcon. We'll get the new model by the end of the year. Current model already has some features leaving Falcon behind, the new model clearly wont make things any easier for Falcon. By 2016 Mondeo will also have a substantial upgrade to push it through a few more years before another major overhal perhaps around 2020, maybe 2018 if an MCA is launched in 2015. Mondeo and its platform for all intent will be Fords global large platform despite what theyre talking about doing with consolidating their current large cars sitting above Mondeo.

If theyre going to lock into another RWD plan, the most logical one i can see is keeping Falcon on E8 and Mustang on D2C (the latter we know the next gen Mustang wont be a major overhaul, other than perhaps the suspension modules). Over the next few years then consolidate both of them with common parts where possibly until such time they can be developed as a whole, side by side.

[Nikked]

Hopefully though, the update for the FG will gain some of the features of the mondeo...

Will the mondeo be able to be supplied in the number's required?

[FPV GTHO]

Well Mondeo is not going to be the volume seller for Ford Europe. That'll be Focus and increasingly Fiesta. America on the other hand will be pumping out over 20K Fusions a month, maybe up to 40K a month if they ever get back into a class leading position against Camry and Accord. There might be an opportunity to take US sourced vehicles.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Falcon, Lincoln and Mustang, and RWD:

It seems that the Falcon is going to share something in common with other models, yes that is a fact. One Ford is an aim of reducing specific parts, so that profits are higher, and development costings shared over multiple projects. You could argue, that the territory is already a working example of One Ford existing in Australia.

But there is much speculation that the future of the falcon lies within sharing a platform with something US based. Its often considered (mainly by media) that it will be a re-badge of the Taurus, but, there are slim chances of that, more later.

Working on a theory of the Falcon sharing with the Mustang, and a speculated RWD Lincoln platform carries some weight. The Mustang is the only other car currently produced by Ford anywhere, that shares similar drive train layouts to the falcon, with the 2015 mustang even going to gain a 4 cyl Eco Boost.

Lincoln have expressed interest in a model, based on the suspected future mustang platform.



Carbuzz

Now, we a possibility of a RWD sedan, and a possible basis for a future falcon.


And should be pointed out, that Ford Australia have been praised for there development work. With the T6 (and Everest SUV derivative), Figo, EcoSport and a Small China Market car, all developed at Broadmeadows.

And, there has been small whispers of Ford Au being involved in the Mustang its self, and "other" projects, both for local, and overseas use.

Remember the "Mad Max" show cars? Seems a bit funny that they were developed solely as just a what if for Max's new ride...both concepts share many similarities with the proposed styling direction of the Mustang...

Mad Max Concepts



Drive




Goauto



Go Auto


Draw what ever conclusions you want, but, there are some very positive signs for Ford Australia, and the post 2016 falcon. Under One Ford, unit production costs will go down. And the Falcon is already gaining common components to other platforms (EUCD etc)

And for those thinking about the Mondeo or Taurus being the replacement of choice...

Using Road_Warrior's "Taurus Theory", you can count out the current Taurus as a direct replacement.

.

Taurus Theory link*unable to link, "falconforums" is deemed a bad word on AFF



Then there is the Mondeo, a car already sold here in Australia, and doesn't match falcon sales. There will be little chance of it making up 1400-odd monthly sales, on top, of what it all ready sells.

Then, you have the Territory and Ute to replace...

And, finally, to close...

On a global scale, the falcon is not doing as bad as what many believe.

Falcon 2011 sales: 18,741
Total Australian market 2011: 1,008,437

Falcon sales consists of 1.8% of the market share...

Now, in America...

Mustang 2011 sales: 70,438
Taurus 2011 sales: 63,526
Total US market: 12.8 million

So those figures show that the Mustang only holds .5% of market share...whilst the Taurus only .4%...

When looked at like that, the Falcon is doing quite good in Australia, selling just under 3 times more % of units then the mustang, and more importantly, the Taurus...

So, the falcon (profit margins aside) has some viability due to market share, something Ford Au can't loose.

Excellent post with some terrific links Very well researched. With the recent additions to the technology capabilities of the Australian operations of Ford it is a sign they see a healthy future for Falcon / Territory and are going to start loading it with tech. Blind spot, lane control, self parking etc. Plenty of goodies and a freshened up exterior for 2013/2014.

Territory had over 1800 sales in June 2012 which is it's best result for 5 years. Falcon and Ute both had an uptick versus recent months.

Ford Australia is very well respected in the Ford world.

[babyf6]

did not know that the falcon holds a greater market percentage then the mustang and taurus combined, i will have to tell my dad that, it will get him excited again about the falcons future

[CAT600]

That's fine to say the % market share is higher for Falcon than the other two examples, but it still comes down to the number of cars built.... If the FG cost 500 mil to develop and you sell 100000 cars over 5 years, then it's $5,000 per car.... You take the sheer numbers the other two sell in and that R&D cost drops 75% to $1,250 per car..... All of a sudden your car is $3,750 more competitive in the market.

Share componentry over several models and maybe you save another few hundred per car.

It's not really about percentages here, more amortization of costs over units sold, and the Falcon just dosent sell enough anymore, especially in this ever tightening profit margin industry

Daniel

[jpd80]

A business plan for a proposed vehicle is not written o the expected percentage of total market,
it's bankrolled on expected sales numbers per year or model life, something Ford used to lie about
just to get cars past the finance department...

[Moby Vic]

Familiar idea: http://www.fordforums.com.au/showthread.php?t=11369237

[jpd80]

The biggest market near us is China, wouldn't it be smarter for FAPA to look at those needs and also
the needs of other stakeholders like FoA and Lincoln to see what is possible under a design envelope?

[max_torq]

It just doesn't look like Ford has any plans along this line. GRWD is a GM program without a Ford equivalent. Ford seems to have just about all its eggs in the CD+ basket which would be Fusion and variants. The only exception is the Mustang which is standing alone as a US based glamour platform. The IRS for the mustang is interesting but the mules do not look to be control blade based... I wonder if the current Boss' torsen diff has suggested that an outsourced diff could be the basis of an IRS for the mustang, maybe with DEW98 suspension components

[tranquilized]

My prediction;

There will be a global platform on which all Fords large cars are based, whether its a Falcon, Taurus, Fusion, Mondeo, whatever. Australia will come into line with the rest of the world with this platform, which will be the new Falcon, or its replacement, come 2016ish. It will have all the latest gadgets and technology, look pretty good, handle pretty good - all that stuff, like the rest of the Ford range. It'll run transverse mounted ecoboost V6 and I4 engines, and of course, it will be FRONT WHEEL DRIVE. We might get a variant with AWD, but obviously there will be no V8 or any proper performance model.

Oh, and it'll sell far more than Falcon currently does. My crystal ball wont tell me if it'll be built in Melbourne or fully imported though unfortunately.

Thats my bet. I would really love to be wrong.

[Moby Vic]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The biggest market near us is China, wouldn't it be smarter for FAPA to look at those needs and also
the needs of other stakeholders like FoA and Lincoln to see what is possible under a design envelope?

What is smaller than Fiesta?

[madmelon]

Originally Posted by tranquilized

... it will be FRONT WHEEL DRIVE. We might get a variant with AWD, but obviously there will be no V8 or any proper performance model.

Oh, and it'll sell far more than Falcon currently does. My crystal ball wont tell me if it'll be built in Melbourne or fully imported though unfortunately.

So you think the buying public in Australia will be interested in a vehicle which across the board is 150kg heavier than the equivalent Falcon, bigger in every direction, with average looks, poorer performance and economy and a "Made in the USA" sticker? The only things it has going for it are the gadgets. The very same gadgets that are available in the Mondeo, which betters the Falcon in economy and price and is only marginally smaller yet it fails to sell even as many as a Falcon does...

Maybe you will get your wish about being wrong, but I suspect it will be about the numbers sold if the Taurus comes here!

[Moby Vic]

If the Taurus comes to Australia, I doubt it will be on the current chassis. It will likely be on the next chassis, which will be downsized.

Pretty much all estimates have Falcon living through 2015, don't they? The Taurus will be redesigned by then.

[Dr Smith]

While it's sunny and eveyone's feeling happy, what about if Ford Oz builds rhd Mustangs and Falcons for exporting while the US sticks to building LHD Mustangs.

[FPV GTHO]

Can't see it happening. Infact I can see the US making a push to out any common RWD vehicles together, built stateside.

[tranquilized]

Originally Posted by madmelon

So you think the buying public in Australia will be interested in a vehicle which across the board is 150kg heavier than the equivalent Falcon, bigger in every direction, with average looks, poorer performance and economy and a "Made in the USA" sticker? The only things it has going for it are the gadgets. The very same gadgets that are available in the Mondeo, which betters the Falcon in economy and price and is only marginally smaller yet it fails to sell even as many as a Falcon does...

Maybe you will get your wish about being wrong, but I suspect it will be about the numbers sold if the Taurus comes here!

Read my post again.

At no point did I mention the current Taurus. that'll be dead and buried by 2016

[Bossxr8]

Forget Taurus and forget Falcon/Territory. The only option on the table is Mondeo, and only if it can be exported throughout Asia to get the volume up.

30,000 units for Falcon/Territory means it is unviable, that has already been determined.

As mentioned in a previous thread there's a reason they have upgraded the line to Euro production specs.

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Forget Taurus and forget Falcon/Territory. The only option on the table is Mondeo, and only if it can be exported throughout Asia to get the volume up.

30,000 units for Falcon/Territory means it is unviable, that has already been determined.

As mentioned in a previous thread there's a reason they have upgraded the line to Euro production specs.

The only problem is Mondeo has a hatch, sedan (deleted locally iirc) and wagon available with petrol and diesel and still sells half of Falcon's numbers.

[madmelon]

Originally Posted by tranquilized

Read my post again.

At no point did I mention the current Taurus. that'll be dead and buried by 2016

Current Taurus, future Taurus...it doesn't matter. If they keep the Taurus even remotely similar in size to the current model, you can guarantee it won't be getting a great deal lighter. The only way to lose that much weight would be aluminium chassis/body.

The point I'm making is picked up by Dr Smith...

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

The only problem is Mondeo has a hatch, sedan (deleted locally iirc) and wagon available with petrol and diesel and still sells half of Falcon's numbers.

...and the fact the Mondeo already only sells half what the Falcon should be proof enough that it's not a 'Falcon replacement' in a true sense of the term and neither would Taurus be. There will probably never be a true 'Falcon replacement'- just something that bridges a gap between Focus and Explorer...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Moby Vic

What is smaller than Fiesta?

FAPA has need of a big car for China.....

Originally Posted by Moby Vic

If the Taurus comes to Australia, I doubt it will be on the current chassis. It will likely be on the next chassis, which will be downsized.

Pretty much all estimates have Falcon living through 2015, don't they? The Taurus will be redesigned by then.

We know that Taurus was ruled out almost two years ago and Mondeo is still a long shot.

[Nikked]

Originally Posted by jpd80

We know that Taurus was ruled out almost two years ago and Mondeo is still a long shot.

Agreed.

If the falcon replacement was based on either, FoA would have not spent the extra money on any FG development...

The key FG development was the EcoBoost 4, engineered for use in a the Falcon, or falcon type car...North/south, RWD...all that hard work and money can't just be for a fraction of Falcon sales today...

One of Ford's global requirements is that each car (or platfrom) must have the EcoBoost...


The Mondeo is a Mondeo...not a falcon...


While "GRWD" in its original conception (huntsman) may be all but gone, but the impetus is there...with Lincoln wanting more the FWD, the Mustang continuing...and Ford's rapid expantion into China. The Chinese market is open for a RWD corperate car...

[JG34JA]

Great OP, well thought out and presented.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

The only problem is Mondeo has a hatch, sedan (deleted locally iirc) and wagon available with petrol and diesel and still sells half of Falcon's numbers.

Look at the part where I mentioned export throughout asia. If they went that way, which now looks very likely, production numbers will be double if not more than what they are now.

And it won't be a replacement for Falcon, it can never replace it, but large cars are reducing to next to nothing in terms of volume and medium cars are taking over from them. And Mondeo is just about as big as Falcon anyway. I know its not the same but if it keeps the line going at Broadmeadows its better than nothing.

And so what if they only sell a bit more than the 500 odd supply limited numbers they do now anyway, give it a few more years and Falcon will probably be selling at that level anyway.


Sorry to say it but they have already been told 30,000 a year is unviable, read into that what you will.

The only other question is what will replace Territory, what SUV is going to be built off the Mondeos platform, Edge?

Explorer is on the wrong platform, just like Taurus is, and none of them are planned for RHD production.

The thing is Taurus will be going onto a LWB version of the Mondeo platform as far as I know, so in theory so will the Explorer? Which might open up the possibility of LWB Mondeo and Explorer production here, the LWB Mondeo would be perfect for China because they sell a heap of models in LWB form over there no one else gets like a LWB 3 series BMW etc.

The Taurus won't be RHD compatible though, possibly because its a V6? Doesn't mean it can't provide the underpinnings for a LWB Mondeo but it would have to stay a 4 potter.

Opens up a lot of possiblilitys but one of them isn't Falcon. Probably why they want to intorduce Mustang here, to at least give the enthusiasts something to look for.

[Nikked]

Wouldn't it make more sense to build the mondeo in Thailand along with the Focus, given that both platforms share common componants. The EUCD is more or less a LWB C1 platform...

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Wouldn't it make more sense to build the mondeo in Thailand along with the Focus, given that both platforms share common componants. The EUCD is more or less a LWB C1 platform...

Bottom line is that Both Kuga and Mondeo could be built in Thailand but logistically, Broadmeadows may be better...
Currently, we can see what a colossal mess getting supplies can be due to a natural disaster, perhaps a little
diversity is good for keeping, supplies going in a strategic market like Australia, especially with vehicles
that can command much higher prices than Focus...

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Sorry to say it but they have already been told 30,000 a year is unviable, read into that what you will.

Boss, was Hindrichs was actually referring to the Geelong engine plant when he said that?
IIRC, the magic number has been 40,000 for quite a few years..seems to me that FoA needs
to get on their bikes and get sales up a bit more..

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Wouldn't it make more sense to build the mondeo in Thailand along with the Focus, given that both platforms share common componants. The EUCD is more or less a LWB C1 platform...

They would have to be getting close to capacity now with Fiesta, Focus, Ranger and soon Kuga. Different plants though. You'd have to see what their capacities are at. They can't build enough Ranger.

But as Jpd80 said in regards to natural disasters may have given Ford a little bit of a warning in regards to making too many products in the one place. A natural disaster big enough could wipe out all their supplies of the above vehicles.

And Thailand got the Focus we tried to get. And Mondeo makes a lot more financial sense than Focus, profits levels are way better and similar build costs.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Boss, was Hindrichs was actually referring to the Geelong engine plant when he said that?
IIRC, the magic number has been 40,000 for quite a few years..seems to me that FoA needs
to get on their bikes and get sales up a bit more..

He was referring to the number required to keep local production viable. Not just the engine plant. We are well under 30,000 anyway due to diesel, and a lesser extent ecoboost.

And that 30,000 which is unviable is still probably a long way from the point where investment in a new model becomes viable. That number is probably just enough to make production viable after investment is payed for.

It may be 40 to 50 or even more to justify another half a billion.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

He was referring to the number required to keep local production viable. Not just the engine plant. We are well under 30,000 anyway due to diesel, and a lesser extent ecoboost.

And that 30,000 which is unviable is still probably a long way from the point where investment in a new model becomes viable. That number is probably just enough to make production viable after investment is payed for.

It may be 40 to 50 or even more to justify another half a billion.

Probably so, but local production at half way is tracking at 35,000 not 30,000 with a possibility of going higher.
He may be looking at additional production too, depends on timing and supply problems from Thailand..
Every natural disaster Thailand has amplifies a basic flaw in locating all Ford's production there..