Ford will bounce back: Graziano

[Jesmol]

Agree Philly, they need a two pronged strategy, one to address the declining sales , the other to address the production overcapacity.

Only if they address both well , will thing work out well.

MMAL addressed the production overcapacity issue, but did nothing to reduce the declining sales.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Jesmol

Agree Philly, they need a two pronged strategy, one to address the declining sales , the other to address the production overcapacity.

Only if they address both well , will thing work out well.

MMAL addressed the production overcapacity issue, but did nothing to reduce the declining sales.

I believe that Ford is incapable of conceiving that Falcon sales wont revive,
the big problem is that they have no contingency plan if that doesn't happen.

The terrible question is:
"what if people just don't want Falcon any more, what do we do then?"

We may not have to wait until 2015 to find out what happens next...

[Jesmol]

I'm not sure they have a choice, commercially they cant build a smaller car in that factory and make margin on it.

If the Falcon fails, Ford goes. Thats the brutal truth. (unless they build an export version of Territory that goes off like a frog in a sock)

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I believe that Ford is incapable of conceiving that Falcon sales wont revive,
the big problem is that they have no contingency plan if that doesn't happen.

The terrible question is:
"what if people just don't want Falcon any more, what do we do then?"

We may not have to wait until 2015 to find out what happens next...

Ford have always sold 20-30% of Falcons as LPG, that will continue when LPi is introduced in July. Thats most of their lost production right there, FG MCA and Ecoboost, possible XR8 will take up the rest of the slack later in the year.

I don't know why people are so worried. Its not like Ford have no upgrades coming. They just need to ride out the slump.

When the new engines and upgrades start to lose appeal after time is when Ford will need to worry, unless they can do something with their marketing.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by jpd80

It now appears that Ford has been building the wrong product mix for nearly 6 months,
I wonder if this was the catalyst for dealer unrest and hastening Burela's departure...

What were they building? Any stats or pointers.

My pick that the wrong model would be the G6? Because I just don't see many of them at all. About 80% of FG that I see are XR6. About 5% are Turbo XR6T or G6ET.

I still say 3.9% finance on those models on the grass should shift them quick.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by phillyc

What were they building? Any stats or pointers.

My pick that the wrong model would be the G6? Because I just don't see many of them at all. About 80% of FG that I see are XR6. About 5% are Turbo XR6T or G6ET.

I still say 3.9% finance on those models on the grass should shift them quick.

Its quite odd actually, if you look at the Ford NZ webiste (and I assume they are controlled via Ford OZ), they are offering 3.9% finance on certain vehicles. Which I guess having a base model Territory at $55000, your are going to need to offer something special.

Regardless, I always hear them say that they are only making to order. In fact i remember seeing a few posts last year from people saying how much of a wait time they had for their new Falcon. Ford cant be saying they are only making to order, then have so many cars in stock, an dthen limiting production to get rid of stock. It just doesnt add up.

[SteveJH]

A lot of them are white. Probably base model Ute's and XT's or G6.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Jesmol

I'm not sure they have a choice, commercially they cant build a smaller car in that factory and make margin on it.

If the Falcon fails, Ford goes. Thats the brutal truth. (unless they build an export version of Territory that goes off like a frog in a sock)

http://www.carpoint.com.au/news/2010...e-coming-21248

The problem is that while Thailand removed the import tariff, authorities there subject foreign cars to a registration fee based on engine capacity.

For example, foreign vehicles with small engines (2000cc capacity or lower) attract a 30 per cent excise at the time of registration, while foreign vehicles with the types of engines that power Australian-made vehicles (3000cc and above) attract a 50 per cent excise.

Before the Free Trade Agreement was signed, imported passenger cars in Thailand would be subject to an 80 per cent tariff, while commercial vehicles would be subject to a 60 per cent tariff.

A Falcon with EcoBoost is still unlikely to benefit in Thailand as although it's under 2000cc. It still get hit with 30% registration excise tax. A Territory will be 2700cc. So possibly 40-50%. Essentially, Australia still gets shafted on the so-called-we-are-idiots-FTA with Thailand. Thailand dropped the import duty then slapped on the registration excise after the FTA was signed. Ford had started to sell the Territory (100 in a month before Thailand changed the rules). Rant over!

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Ford have always sold 20-30% of Falcons as LPG, that will continue when LPi is introduced in July.

Hey boss, where did you hear LPI was coming in July?
I thought it was September....

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Jesmol

I'm not sure they have a choice, commercially they cant build a smaller car in that factory and make margin on it.

If the Falcon fails, Ford goes. Thats the brutal truth. (unless they build an export version of Territory that goes off like a frog in a sock)

Frog in a sock....

They were going to build Focus which i accept would have been stripped out to make money.
I could see them doing Asia Pacific assembly of Mondeo, that should have a better return than Cruze
and could be built with import parts to cut out the enormous wait time from Genk plant in Belgium.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Ford have always sold 20-30% of Falcons as LPG, that will continue when LPi is introduced in July. Thats most of their lost production right there, FG MCA and Ecoboost, possible XR8 will take up the rest of the slack later in the year.

It's important that they regain those LPG Falcons and V8 sales and that they haven't leaked elsewhere. EcoBoost is a real unknown but a potential winner with 4cylinder only fleets, low CO2 fleets and those that want a Falcon with 4cylinder running costs. EcoBoost will have to be marketed by Ford.

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

I don't know why people are so worried. Its not like Ford have no upgrades coming. They just need to ride out the slump.

I agree. The next few months may be hard yakka on the locally produced side, but the 2nd half of the year should be solid. Both with locally made and the imports.

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

When the new engines and upgrades start to lose appeal after time is when Ford will need to worry, unless they can do something with their marketing.

Which is why I am somewhat happy that Ford has a marketer as the CEO. I think HQ know the products are great, but aren't selling what they should be. Ford HQ believe it to be marketing.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Its quite odd actually, if you look at the Ford NZ webiste (and I assume they are controlled via Ford OZ), they are offering 3.9% finance on certain vehicles. Which I guess having a base model Territory at $55000, your are going to need to offer something special.

Regardless, I always hear them say that they are only making to order. In fact i remember seeing a few posts last year from people saying how much of a wait time they had for their new Falcon. Ford cant be saying they are only making to order, then have so many cars in stock, an dthen limiting production to get rid of stock. It just doesnt add up.

I just did a bit of a spreadsheet.

But assuming a 7.9% finance cost to Ford. Not sure if that would be realistic or whatever. But Ford does access to internal line of credit to Ford (was discussed that much had been repaid in 2009 FY).

2nd assumption is a 3.9% finance deal. The difference is an ongoing funding of 4% by FoA. If the terms were set as zero money down, full payment (no balloon) commercial hire purchase agreement over a 4 year period the figures look very good.

Essentially, the principal owing is reduced by 2.1% every month for 48mths. The cost to Ford drops from 0.33% the first month to 0.007% in the last month. The net cost to Ford is 8.17% of the principal. On a $36,990 XR6 the cost to Ford would be $3020. IMO Keeping them on the grass will cost 15%.

Cheap finance is much better than slashing prices and destroying resale. A cheap price builds an expectation that another bargain will come along but the cheap finance will be long remembered and appreciated. The person will be most likely in a position to repeat in 4 years time if they wish.

You only have to look at the seemingly successful Toyota Yaris and Corolla cheap finance was. They had it on targeted / specific trim levels and body styles. Most likely, the ones which hadn't been selling. Corolla had huge sales in Dec/Jan when the promo was on.

Ford should, if they can, do this cheap finance. Advert: "Falcon, it's not just the award winning better car, it's the smarter choice with 3.9% finance."

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by phillyc

What were they building? Any stats or pointers.

My pick that the wrong model would be the G6? Because I just don't see many of them at all. About 80% of FG that I see are XR6. About 5% are Turbo XR6T or G6ET.

I still say 3.9% finance on those models on the grass should shift them quick.

Phil I have my suspicions that the market for Falcon is now hopelessly locked at $36,990 drive away XR6 with the lot.
Last year's XR50 was to be a limited run but 90% of buyers were expecting them to be a "stock item".
With that in mind, I suspect that Ford kept building regular stock to push into the dealerships but DPs revolted
and refused to let Burela dump car on them that no one wanted, DPs wanted Anniversary XRs but Ford had none.

A golden opportunity wasted.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by XESP351

I'd be interested to know how many Commodores are in the car park at Elizabeth. My guess is more than 2600.

Doesn't look like anywhere near 2600 to me
http://www.nearmap.com/?ll=-34.75126...h&nmd=20110123

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by stevz

Doesn't look like anywhere near 2600 to me
http://www.nearmap.com/?ll=-34.75126...h&nmd=20110123

They normally use Mannheim auction grounds off the Geelong Freeway.

And the figure seems to be 8000.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by jpd80

A golden opportunity wasted.

They're good at that. No XR8, no LPG. It doesnt matter if these are coming back. Customers are forced to turn elsewhere, often, never to return.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by vztrt

They normally use Mannheim auction grounds off the Geelong Freeway.

No they do not.

That would be Prix Car's grounds, not Manheim auctions.
http://www.prixcar.com.au/fac_vic.htm
I believe that was a one off during the gfc in 2008 when they literally ran out of room at Elizabeth.
Prix Car is now full of Jap and Euro imports. Not a Holden in sight.

Originally Posted by vztrt

And the figure seems to be 8000.

Where is this figure coming from?

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by phillyc

Essentially, the principal owing is reduced by 2.1% every month for 48mths. The cost to Ford drops from 0.33% the first month to 0.007% in the last month. The net cost to Ford is 8.17% of the principal. On a $36,990 XR6 the cost to Ford would be $3020. IMO Keeping them on the grass will cost 15%.

Cheap finance is much better than slashing prices and destroying resale. A cheap price builds an expectation that another bargain will come along but the cheap finance will be long remembered and appreciated. The person will be most likely in a position to repeat in 4 years time if they wish.

You only have to look at the seemingly successful Toyota Yaris and Corolla cheap finance was. They had it on targeted / specific trim levels and body styles. Most likely, the ones which hadn't been selling. Corolla had huge sales in Dec/Jan when the promo was on.

Ford should, if they can, do this cheap finance. Advert: "Falcon, it's not just the award winning better car, it's the smarter choice with 3.9% finance."

You got to remember that Ford is not getting $36990 when they sell the car. Even tho they are would be financing the lot. In fact it would be a very risky deal for the financier. Approx $3000 goes to GST, $1200 to stamp duty. $800 to rego, $1000 to dealer etc etc. US banks have learnt the problems with financing houses for 100% for something that supposedly goes up in value. You arent going to get a sane bank to finance a car for 120% for something that goes down in value.

Whether it be cheap finance or cheaper cars, doesnt matter, somewhere along the lines, the manufacturer is paying for it. The difference is just how good you can sell it, and how well you can sucker in the buyer.

Taking a quick look at Ford NZ prices (not including on road costs) and Ford Oz prices, there seems to be a much larger increase in NZ prices than can be explained by currency differences. This I assume Higher prices in NZ allow Ford to offer cheaper finance. Can also work the other way, if you have the cash (and dont need financing) and see the RRP price, you may think too overpriced and look elsewhere.

phillyc - It's important that they regain those LPG Falcons and V8 sales and that they haven't leaked elsewhere. EcoBoost is a real unknown but a potential winner with 4cylinder only fleets, low CO2 fleets and those that want a Falcon with 4cylinder running costs. EcoBoost will have to be marketed by Ford.

The problem is, I cant see where those sales have leaked to. If they havent leaked, they arent coming back. Camry/ Hybrid or Aurion sales havent gone up as a result. Commodore sales are lower than last year. I dont beleive its been a "we'll go with this because Ford arent making it", I think its been a "we'll go with this because its the best one to chose from"

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by stevz

Where is this figure coming from?

From here if true.

Originally Posted by Jesmol

I've been forecasting injections of numerous down days since August last year and I dont think we've seen the end of it by a long way.

Holden aren't really in any better a situation, they have something like 8000 unsold cars in the pipeline.

[tezxr8man]

The recent natural disasters would have done nothing to help the sales too much either. I know a few people up here in NQ that were looking at a new car, more than likely a Falcon or Commodore and are holding off at the moment until they get back on track after the cyclone and all the flooding we keep getting. I'd say it's not the only place to be like that

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by stevz

Doesn't look like anywhere near 2600 to me
http://www.nearmap.com/?ll=-34.75126...h&nmd=20110123

Looks like about 1500 vehicles there, are they storing in other areas too?

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by vztrt

From here if true.

I never found out if it was actually true. But during the GFC, I was told that Holden had leased a fair bit of land just North of Adelaide, which was on the transport corridor to Sydney / Brisbane. And they were storing quite alot of cars there at the time.

The Holden Jan 23 pic looks like there are about 1300 cars there. Which is only just over a week of sales for commodore and ute. But i guess it would have been just after the xmas shutdown, so i guess they would have been aiming for zero stock

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by tezxr8man

The recent natural disasters would have done nothing to help the sales too much either. I know a few people up here in NQ that were looking at a new car, more than likely a Falcon or Commodore and are holding off at the moment until they get back on track after the cyclone and all the flooding we keep getting. I'd say it's not the only place to be like that

Add to that several parts of the retail sector seem to be in a slump at the moment - in WA they are anyway. Real estate, motor vehicles - people are wary of dropping coin on the big ticket items at the moment.

[tezxr8man]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Add to that several parts of the retail sector seem to be in a slump at the moment - in WA they are anyway. Real estate, motor vehicles - people are wary of dropping coin on the big ticket items at the moment.

I think everyone is focusing on fixing things at the moment and cleaning up, everyone here is busy and has money but aren't going for the big things at all just sorting stuff out. i thing in a few months after everything is sorted they will start buying again and a fair few people up here anyway aim to buy a large car
i know one things for sure i hope Ford brings the XR8 out again because i want one now and am waiting for info to make a decision on what to buy and it's killing me

[jixel 78]

How could XR8 possibly boost sales? Maybe fifty new ones a month nation wide? Anyone with the coin to buy a new V8 is going to go for the bells and whistles,not `I need it to tow the boat` this type of `wheres the choice` thinking is a hangover from dropping the V8 in the 80`s and bringing it back as a niche powertrain for a minimalistic market dominated by sixes. The difference now is the dominant market is a four, and sixes are the niche powertrain. Especially four litres of it. The Falcons six is too big, thirsty and people are still looking at its capacity in litres when buying a car. Sure it goes good, looks good but its engine isnt going to be exploited to its potential on an epic cross country road trip when its cheaper to catch a plane. The rest(turbo/V8) are pretty much being belted(and confiscated hooning)around our sleepy suburbs.If you drive(or have driven) a FPV FG do you honestly believe them to be a real world daily driven car in any capital city flooded with revenue raising speed cameras in this country? Have you lost demerit points in it, or perhaps your licence? Because after driving the above mentioned cars I cannot for the life of me believe they can or would be driven`responsibly` If its being putted around at the speed limit, never to be given a squirt,then quite frankly, whats the point of all the fuel, insurance and finance? People with a family/small children simply do not need or want a 450 horsepower four door. Surely all the millions(40 I believe for Coyote) could have been better spent on reducing the capacity of FG powertrains without losing its 6 cylinder layout and therefore saving jobs whilst still manufacturing sixes in Geelong. The I4T may be a start, but traditional Falcon buyers may have been eased into a little engine by still having six under the bonnet.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by vztrt

From here if true.

I think you'll find that 8000 figure was referring to Holden, not Ford....

[Jesmol]

Yeah , the 8K is Holden stock. It includes Dealer stocks though. Its calculated from the difference between production rate and sales and is bascially the total number of unregistered cars around the country , the figures I've quoted though are for Sedan / SWB only so doesn't include Ute and LWB or Territory.

Eg Holden Build 2000 cars in a month and sell 1500 then the net stock position increases by 500.

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by stevz

Doesn't look like anywhere near 2600 to me
http://www.nearmap.com/?ll=-34.75126...h&nmd=20110123

Bear in mind that photo wazs taken on 23 Janurary and they have had near two months of full production since then.........

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Hey boss, where did you hear LPI was coming in July?
I thought it was September....

It supposed to be done by July, thats what we have been told, they have also mentioned it in the press once or twice, but thats if there are no further delays, so we'll wait and see. They will not wait until the update, they need it on sale ASAP.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It supposed to be done by July, thats what we have been told, they have also mentioned it in the press once or twice, but thats if there are no further delays, so we'll wait and see. They will not wait until the update, they need it on sale ASAP.

Great news and yes, if ever an engine option needed fast tracking, it's the EcoLPI.
The take rate when it arrives could be as high as 30% until things calm down...