The decline of fossil fuels - and how that effects car enthusiasts

[Junkyard-Dog]

I would gladly have a Tesla S (if I could afford one). They're fast as hell and practically silent.

I would blast through the hills every night - like a wraith.

Originally Posted by Elks

Wait wait wait I've just got to put on a crash helmet and tighten my harnesses. Buckling in for a bit of hate.

It's coming guys buckle up.

Totally admire your passion Tony !


But not something i can commit to in the current climate...

[IanC]

Originally Posted by Elks

Is the brutal truth within the next decade most of you will loan an EV. Full Electric powered by either the grid or your own home solar system.

The cost of running an EV like a base model Tesla model 3, over five years is now cheaper than renting a Camry with an average 15,000 km per annum usage. The reason being charged off the grid in Victoria costs about nine dollars to fully charge an EV. Versus $60 to $100 for fuel.

Most of that $60 to $100 is fuel excise. I can't see the govt letting EV owners get away with not paying that kind of money. As soon as EVs get popular there will be some other sort of tax like road charging. I am sure that the additional tax will also have to be paid by IC cars too on top of their fuel excise. Purely for environmental reasons of course.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Elks

It's coming guys buckle up.

Certainly is, not this side of 2030 though at the earliest I reckon.

This is a couple thousand kilometers short of the real usage of my daily for 2021, as I missed a few entries, what do you reckon an EV would save me in fuel?

Is there a L/100km conversion into kWh/100km conversion? How do you do an apples for apples comparison on an EV for fuel usage? My average speed over 800-900km to a tank is usually around 70km/h.

I would be curious to spend a couple weeks with a Tesla Model 3 on my usual commute.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Certainly is, not this side of 2030 though at the earliest I reckon.

This is a couple thousand kilometers short of the real usage of my daily for 2021, as I missed a few entries, what do you reckon an EV would save me in fuel?

Is there a L/100km conversion into kWh/100km conversion? How do you do an apples for apples comparison on an EV for fuel usage? My average speed over 800-900km to a tank is usually around 70km/h.

I would be curious to spend a couple weeks with a Tesla Model 3 on my usual commute.

image

I found this review:

https://www.carsguide.com.au/ev/tesl...ng-range-81969

However, like we said, this is a test to see how much we can eek out of a full battery between charges without a single thought on saving electricity. Just like we were driving a normal ICE vehicle. No eco or hypermiling, just not-a-second-thought schlepping about town, often in packed peak-hour traffic, or driving at 110km/h-plus on freeways, air-con on and two or more souls inside, with frequent – even brutal – acceleration bursts. Just because 4.4s to 100…

Keeping in mind our MY20 Long Range does not have the heat pump which helps add another 37km to the stated 620km NEDC range, we managed 305km, with an indicated 80km left in reserve. Nearly 400km after at-times ham-fisted, boofhead driving. 174kWh/km, or 17.4kWh/100km. That’s impressive. Using the average price of electricity in Victoria (23.47c/kWh), that’s $4.10 every 100km.

About 50% in 'fuel' costs compared to my daily, so it'd save me around $1000/year.

[JasonACT]

So about 100 years to recover the price of a new Tesla then? (I'm only kidding.)

[Junkyard-Dog]

Well, I've read enough. EVs are a no go.

The only logical choice is to Clevo the world.

[gaz084]

I Agree

The electric motors are just to efficient they are 90 something percent efficient...and we haven't even scratched the surface with the technology yet.

I dont think they are quite there yet with the battery technology...but when they are(big range and quick charging,every household will have battery and solar and every public place like shopping centers will have a charging station.

I think it is going to take longer than they predict it will...price and the technology will play the biggest roll,at the moment ev's have none of that going for them.

[Elks]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Certainly is, not this side of 2030 though at the earliest I reckon.

This is a couple thousand kilometers short of the real usage of my daily for 2021, as I missed a few entries, what do you reckon an EV would save me in fuel?

Is there a L/100km conversion into kWh/100km conversion? How do you do an apples for apples comparison on an EV for fuel usage? My average speed over 800-900km to a tank is usually around 70km/h.

I would be curious to spend a couple weeks with a Tesla Model 3 on my usual commute.

Ive got some clients (pre covid) running 2 Caprices 6.0 as airport Limo service" type vehicles.

Cars cost $70 K each running costs on these cars are pretty well understood.

They replaced one with a Tesla 1 Model S and then a Model X. Both cost about $140K

So lease payments on the Tesla are more, but every other cost is lower. So much so that the total $$ out the door per month for them is less than for the Caprices. But the time you add fuel, oil, brakes, etc.

They charge overnight off the grid. estimated to be $9 per charge when low. These guys couldn't give a damn about emissions. It's all about cost. This is an extreme example, but it is real world.

And of course, you can buy MG's for 43K, limited range compared to Tesla, but 350km or something. If it just work and back, then plug in overnight. Commuter car, think Hyundai Kona. No one is ever going to love it, but it works and is cheap to run.

[Elks]

Originally Posted by Junkyard-Dog

Well, I've read enough. EVs are a no go.

The only logical choice is to Clevo the world.

Solid post.

But is it OK to slide in a Windsor here and there.

[DJM83]

Originally Posted by Elks

Solid post.

But is it OK to slide in a Windsor here and there.

Also if you get bored of that ute and want an EV, ill take it from ya hands cheap

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Elks

Ive got some clients (pre covid) running 2 Caprices 6.0 as airport Limo service" type vehicles.

Cars cost $70 K each running costs on these cars are pretty well understood.

They replaced one with a Tesla 1 Model S and then a Model X. Both cost about $140K

So lease payments on the Tesla are more, but every other cost is lower. So much so that the total $$ out the door per month for them is less than for the Caprices. But the time you add fuel, oil, brakes, etc.

They charge overnight off the grid. estimated to be $9 per charge when low. These guys couldn't give a damn about emissions. It's all about cost. This is an extreme example, but it is real world.

And of course, you can buy MG's for 43K, limited range compared to Tesla, but 350km or something. If it just work and back, then plug in overnight. Commuter car, think Hyundai Kona. No one is ever going to love it, but it works and is cheap to run.

Sure, that's all well and good but what about the other 90% of us regular Joe's commuting to work?

My daily cost $26K new, the povvo spec MG EV is still nearly twice the price with less than half the range of my diesel Focus - I paid for it with cash, I've never had any finance of any type/leases and I'm sure as **** not going to start for stuff like cars.

I'm on the EV train, instant power and torque the moment it starts spinning, but the energy density of batteries is the real world problem that's holding it back, as well as the price.

It doesn't make any sense what so ever to spend $43K-$100K to save a thousand bucks a year.

The biggest convincing moment for me was going for a spin around Melbourne from Truganina, over the West Gate Bridge then through Port Melbourne and through the inner city in an Isuzu truck converted to an EV, with 3750kg of concrete in the back of it, plus me and two other fat ****s in the cab.

Compared to a regular diesel Isuzu, this thing hauled ***, we were deliberately beating on it, and was dead silent - first service at 120,000km to change battery coolant.

The timeline on the battery development is where I'm calling bull****, plenty of empty promises thrown about everywhere about it, not many tangible results.

I'm seeing a lot more Tesla's on the road, locally with a Model X out here and also a Model 3 and I live regional.

For me, an excellent interim is Nissan e-Power system, that they don't sell in Australia because Nissan Australia are retards:



They're all EV's but they have a 1.5kWh battery in the cabin, which the petrol engine runs a generator to keep it charged, and then electric motors drive the wheels.

Nissan Note e-Power is sub $30K I believe. 2.7L/100km, 1300km+ to a tank of 91.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Sure, that's all well and good but what about the other 90% of us regular Joe's commuting to work?

My daily cost $26K new, the povvo spec MG EV is still nearly twice the price with less than half the range of my diesel Focus - I paid for it with cash, I've never had any finance of any type/leases and I'm sure as **** not going to start for stuff like cars.

I'm on the EV train, instant power and torque the moment it starts spinning, but the energy density of batteries is the real world problem that's holding it back, as well as the price.

It doesn't make any sense what so ever to spend $43K-$100K to save a thousand bucks a year.

The biggest convincing moment for me was going for a spin around Melbourne from Truganina, over the West Gate Bridge then through Port Melbourne and through the inner city in an Isuzu truck converted to an EV, with 3750kg of concrete in the back of it, plus me and two other fat ****s in the cab.

Compared to a regular diesel Isuzu, this thing hauled ***, we were deliberately beating on it, and was dead silent - first service at 120,000km to change battery coolant.

The timeline on the battery development is where I'm calling bull****, plenty of empty promises thrown about everywhere about it, not many tangible results.

I'm seeing a lot more Tesla's on the road, locally with a Model X out here and also a Model 3 and I live regional.

For me, an excellent interim is Nissan e-Power system, that they don't sell in Australia because Nissan Australia are retards:



They're all EV's but they have a 1.5kWh battery in the cabin, which the petrol engine runs a generator to keep it charged, and then electric motors drive the wheels.

Nissan Note e-Power is sub $30K I believe. 2.7L/100km, 1300km+ to a tank of 91.

Unlike Europe, no one in Australia is ramming BEVs down our throats, so tiny diesel or hybrids offer the best compromise and savings.

I like the fact that we have lots of choices and can make our own decisions, I think rising fuel prices will
eventually convince many to give up vehicles that use too much fuel and move to more efficient choices.
We’re now closer to $2/ litre, how long before its $2.50 or $3.00, what will it take for people to say enough..

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Unlike Europe, no one in Australia is ramming BEVs down our throats, so tiny diesel or hybrids offer the best compromise and savings.

I like the fact that we have lots of choices and can make our own decisions, I think rising fuel prices will
eventually convince many to give up vehicles that use too much fuel and move to more efficient choices.
We’re now closer to $2/ litre, how long before its $2.50 or $3.00, what will it take for people to say enough..

With rising fuel costs the only thing that's going to do is put more pressure on wage increases and or people pushing for work from home setups.

Plenty of workplaces are very anti work from home.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

With rising fuel costs the only thing that's going to do is put more pressure on wage increases and or people pushing for work from home setups.

Plenty of workplaces are very anti work from home.

I don’t know if it will get to real stagflation but it’s a possibility and very hard to cure….
Also depends who’s in power, the Libs or Labor…

[whynot]

Disclosure, I am a sparkie by trade and I love all things electrical; electric motors, big batteries, electric vehicles, etc, etc.

It is very hard to forecast the future. Most "futurologists" more often get it wrong that right (see Club of Rome).

That said ... a few months ago, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is an offical agency of the US government, released a forecast of oil production. While total kWh of energy produced by renewable resources (e.g. solar, wind) will continue to rapidly grow, the demand for energy will oil and gas consumption also continue to grow.

The future of global energy can be reduced to two bits in a recent report: Solar power will represent about half of India’s electric power by 2050, and by then sales of liquid fuel will be higher than they are now.

Those items appeared in the recently released International Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) which describes a transition that ends with a mix in which oil and gas continue to play a large role.

While the growth curve for renewables is steep, the report noted that “oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian countries.”

Adding a lot more renewable power and less coal to the mix will significantly lower the emissions associated with an expected 50% increase in energy demand.

The expected gains, ranging from 5 to 35% depending on the growth rate in those countries, is far from the net-zero emissions goal set to limit global temperature increases and the damaging climate changes associated with that trend.

It seems then that petrol will be around for awhile yet.

A few other things to keep in mind ...

By 2050 the GTHO will be around 80 years old. That is vintage car age. Even a last run V8 Falcon will be pushing 35 years old. Enthusiasts will be driving their V8, the rest of today's kids will be playing with the BYOD while the EV drives itself to the destination.

Sure, a cool looking and loud V8 will attract some attention. Parents will point them out to excited kids. Photos will be taken. A bit like the attention a steam train gets.

Personally, I wouldn't fret about lack of petrol. There is enough around to see us out.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by whynot

Disclosure, I am a sparkie by trade and I love all things electrical; electric motors, big batteries, electric vehicles, etc, etc.

It is very hard to forecast the future. Most "futurologists" more often get it wrong that right (see Club of Rome).

That said ... a few months ago, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is an offical agency of the US government, released a forecast of oil production. While total kWh of energy produced by renewable resources (e.g. solar, wind) will continue to rapidly grow, the demand for energy will oil and gas consumption also continue to grow.



It seems then that petrol will be around for awhile yet.

A few other things to keep in mind ...

By 2050 the GTHO will be around 80 years old. That is vintage car age. Even a last run V8 Falcon will be pushing 35 years old. Enthusiasts will be driving their V8, the rest of today's kids will be playing with the BYOD while the EV drives itself to the destination.

Sure, a cool looking and loud V8 will attract some attention. Parents will point them out to excited kids. Photos will be taken. A bit like the attention a steam train gets.

Personally, I wouldn't fret about lack of petrol. There is enough around to see us out.

if not alcohol is your friend, been around for a millennium and will be for a few more..

[Elks]

Originally Posted by DJM83

Also if you get bored of that ute and want an EV, ill take it from ya hands cheap

Thanks for the offer Dallas, but that's a hard no.

It will be 2050 and I'll have to get a permit to buy 20 litres of Dinosaur juice, and It will still be in my shed.

[Elks]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Unlike Europe, no one in Australia is ramming BEVs down our throats, so tiny diesel or hybrids offer the best compromise and savings.

I like the fact that we have lots of choices and can make our own decisions, I think rising fuel prices will
eventually convince many to give up vehicles that use too much fuel and move to more efficient choices.
We’re now closer to $2/ litre, how long before its $2.50 or $3.00, what will it take for people to say enough..

The numbers dont work for me either. I only do about 4,000km a year, (I work from home).

But things change and I'll get a real job, or move to the country or whatever, and that changes the equation. Just as it would with a conventional car. If I was doing 40,000 per annum I certainly wouldnt use my FPV. Or in years to come I buy a 15 year old 2nd hand EV with 1/2 dead batteries, but works for the limited driving I do.

[CyberWasp]

One thing that will go against fossil fuels in the very near future is the situation with Russia.
As soon as the 1st bullet is fired, petrol prices will double or triple.

[Sprintey]

This is a great thread. The big T seems to be hedging, with 3 different approaches being tried regarding hydrogen.

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-new...in-2023-report

Big fan of turn of the last-century passenger and freight ships here.

Here's a gem of a site Franco:

http://ssmaritime.com/
http://ssmaritime.com/indx2.htm

I'd say E85 will replace petrol for enthusiasts, and be much cleaner.

Curious as to how much a big burnout would cost in the City of London. You could say it's an Australian cultural exhibit and they'd probably pay you a fee.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Junkyard-Dog

I don't necessarily know what this thread is about any more... but I like the chaos.

Franco delivers

[Sprintey]

And off topic - here's someone flogging a large piece of maritime freight equipment

80,000 tonnes
212,000 horsepower
32.69 knots

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQQnvn7brHU

The bow wave must be triple to quadruple head high! She is a beast.

I'd argue Normandie was greater, but can't find footage at flat tack.

[Franco Cozzo]

The big man has weighed in:



Shh - don't say too much my hydrogen shares went up 30% today, I want that to continue

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

The big man has weighed in:

[yt]64RAmL2Q3Ig[/yt

Shh - don't say too much my hydrogen shares went up 30% today, I want that to continue

Big as in head size or Ego?

[Sprintey]

There could be hydrogen in the future. Toyota link above has three types, the Mirai's fuel cell, the Prius using it as a hybrid, the Corolla just burning it in an ICE.

And although that sounds silly, if you think of constraints on lithium production (or rare earths with wonderful names like praseodymium) - or geopolitical constraints on these - then the Corolla approach makes some sense.

Method of construction we are already building at scale (ICE) tick
Could retrofit existing petrol supply chain - heaps of outlets tick
Although inefficient, use solar-electrolysis (in regional I imagine at point of sale) tick
Take pressure off the rare earths/lithium in batteries and help transition tick
Can be close to 0 CO2 with only current infrastructure modification tick

[MITCHAY]

I will worry about the decline of dinosaur fuel when it's an actual problem and not all this woke BS. Until then I will keep flogging my car and the greenies can eat a dick

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

There could be hydrogen in the future. Toyota link above has three types, the Mirai's fuel cell, the Prius using it as a hybrid, the Corolla just burning it in an ICE.

And although that sounds silly, if you think of constraints on lithium production (or rare earths with wonderful names like praseodymium) - or geopolitical constraints on these - then the Corolla approach makes some sense.

Method of construction we are already building at scale (ICE) tick
Could retrofit existing petrol supply chain - heaps of outlets tick
Although inefficient, use solar-electrolysis (in regional I imagine at point of sale) tick
Take pressure off the rare earths/lithium in batteries and help transition tick
Can be close to 0 CO2 with only current infrastructure modification tick

It doesn't work well as a combustible liquid fuel because of its low energy density, also storing it at 5000-10000 PSI is a bit of a drama.

What pressure is LPG stored at in a car? Those tanks are pretty beefy compared to a regular unleaded tank, be interesting to see what a hydrogen tank is like in comparison.

Curious to see and drive a hydrogen powered car in the flesh though.

20kg of hydrogen appears to be 282.5L at its boiling point.

Whats 20kg of hydrogen cost? Assuming 50L/100km as per the BMW Hydrogen 7 of circa 2007.

Green hydrogen appears to cost $6-$9 per KG to produce at the moment.

[jpd80]

There’s a massive hydrogen plant going into Gladstone in the next year or so, derives power from a large solar farm to be built in the same region. The plan is to export most of it but also some for use in Australia.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by jpd80

There’s a massive hydrogen plant going into Gladstone in the next year or so, derives power from a large solar farm to be built in the same region. The plan is to export most of it but also some for use in Australia.

Sounds like the same trap with gas exports,

Massive gas resources but the locals get screwed and its close to being a shortage locally due to all the exports being sold for **** all