Why the ICE will be produced for longer than people realise

[Syndrome]

The ONLY way for the EV to replace the ICE is if governments mandate the change. Otherwise the ICE is still the better option in most circumstances.

[whynot]

I agree. ICE will be around for a long time yet.

However, to quote Arthur C Clarke, “we tend to overestimate what we can do in the near future and grossly underestimate what can be done in the distant future. This is because the human imagination extrapolates in a straight line, while real world events develop exponentially like compound interest.”

The issue, as clearly pointed out in the video, is that when it comes to energy density, batteries still have a long way to go. That said, the energy density of liquid fuel is “fix”, insomuch that, while it is possible to burn it more efficiently, it upper limit of energy density is fixed by the limits of chemical reactions. There is an interesting side by Matsu****a Battery Co. that notes in the period from 1975 to 1990, energy density of batteries (measured in Wh/l) only increased 1.8 times. In the period from 1990 to 2005, the energy density increased by 5.2 times. And in the period from 2010 to 2020, energy density has tripled. Given the present significant R&D into improving battery energy density, it will be interesting to see where the technology ends up in, say, 20-30 years time.

There is another interesting economic twist. As EV start to displace ICE, the demand for liquid fuel will fall. In turn, the price of liquid fuel should fall as well. Which tilts the economics back towards using ICE. I suspect as that as the two technologies battle it out, expect improvements in both the ICE and EV (which is good news for us as consumers).

[whynot]

Well, there you go. I never realised that there was a naughty word in a well known Japanese battery manufacturer ...

[xxx000]

"around" or being produced in similar numbers to today?

Even mates with lawnmowing businesses have switched from petrol engines to batteries.
Solar uptake on homes is going gangbusters many with Tesla batteries as part of it.
In my work I see countless Teslas on the road every day and every major shopping centre has charging facilities, many are free and hooked up to the centres solar panels.


The change is clearly inevitable especially with the investment by major institutions.

The "best" argument to the contrary says maybe in 10 years, however this is a random number that's far enough in the future to make the ICE devotees feel comfortable about their bias.

[jpd80]

An often overlooked fact is that the bulk of Australia's population is located within 200 km of the coast, there's a great opportunity for people to embrace at least one EV in a two car family. For single vehicle families, a hybrid or PHEV may be a better choice to blend the old with the new and skip the whole range anxiety thing. The whole idea is to move the electrification discussion forward and include everyone at different levels.

People are smart and in the past 20 years, a lot of old ideas on vehicles have been left behind,
the thought that relaxed big capacity engines were needed for comfortable long distance travel,
has been mostly supplanted by small capacity ICEs in petrol or diesels and complex automatics.
Toyota is now taking the next step with wider use of hybrids over diesels but more needs to be done.
I can see electrification slowly taking over, the journey may be longer than some think but everyone
is taking it at different parts of their lives, older people buy their last vehicle as young people buy their first.

[Mowdit]

Nice article
Great practicle example (tax deduction)

Yes change is inevitable, as batteries improve and evolve the cost will decrease and uptake improve, but without a scientific miracle or quantum leap it would appear to be quite some way off yet.

I was disappointed that he didn't cover just how much the ICE engine efficiency has improved in the last 40 years.... Can it be further improved ????? (a new hydrocarbon based fuel blend/hybrid maybe, lets face it most ICE are pretty well engineered/manufactured and high strung these days).

Sorry whynot, will disagree with your comment on falling demand for liquid fuel, world population growth will offset the EV uptake, so a fall in demand for liquid fuel won't happen for a very long time (until EV become affordable to Joe Average in current third world economies ) 2075 maybe

Planting a tree a year works for me (along with solar planels, living near work, being frugal, ........)

[xxx000]

Originally Posted by Mowdit

Nice article
Great practicle example (tax deduction)

Yes change is inevitable, as batteries improve and evolve the cost will decrease and uptake improve, but without a scientific miracle or quantum leap it would appear to be quite some way off yet.

I was disappointed that he didn't cover just how much the ICE engine efficiency has improved in the last 40 years.... Can it be further improved ????? (a new hydrocarbon based fuel blend/hybrid maybe, lets face it most ICE are pretty well engineered/manufactured and high strung these days).

Sorry whynot, will disagree with your comment on falling demand for liquid fuel, world population growth will offset the EV uptake, so a fall in demand for liquid fuel won't happen for a very long time (until EV become affordable to Joe Average in current third world economies ) 2075 maybe

Planting a tree a year works for me (along with solar planels, living near work, being frugal, ........)

I'm not aware of any research or work into improving the efficiency of ICE, are you?
On the other hand there are huge investments into EVs and everything associated with them
Car manufacturers are dropping ICE replacing it with EV or Hybrid.
Sounds to me that you're in denial about both the future and what's happening right now

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by xxx000

I'm not aware of any research or work into improving the efficiency of ICE, are you?
On the other hand there are huge investments into EVs and everything associated with them
Car manufacturers are dropping ICE replacing it with EV or Hybrid.
Sounds to me that you're in denial about both the future and what's happening right now

Toyotas new cutting edge ICEs are now at 40% efficiency which was once considered unattainable.
Consumers are going to be the big winners in competing technology improving vehicles in ways that
can be seen today.

On a different note, I read certain advances in battery chemistry happening in Australia will lead to
Super quick battery charging with early testing in research showing full charge possible in as low
as 8 minutes.
Now that is the kind of development that could turn arguments on their head.

[Tassie f100]

A relevent question in regard to the change from I.C.E to electric,is how is the Govt going to replace the huge dollars that is collected in tax and excise on fossil fuels.When the Govt is
collecting a minimum 50c ,litre for fuels how are they going to make that revenue when electicity is at the equivilent of $4-5 per refuel of which the Govt doesn’t really get any of.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Mowdit

Nice article

Sorry whynot, will disagree with your comment on falling demand for liquid fuel, world population growth will offset the EV uptake, so a fall in demand for liquid fuel won't happen for a very long time (until EV become affordable to Joe Average in current third world economies ) 2075 maybe

Mowdit, you are correct. I agree with your comment that liquid fuel still has growth potential. A good example is coal. Even though demand for coal for electricity generation is falling in places like the USA (partly because of the glut in natural gas), the world wide consumption for coal is still increasing.

The point I was trying to make, was that economic/consumer forces are often a lot more intertwined that it appears on the surface. I do believe that at some point there will be a transition in transportation from liquid fuel to battery. But it won't be a simple transition. It will occur over decades.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by xxx000

"around" or being produced in similar numbers to today?

Even mates with lawnmowing businesses have switched from petrol engines to batteries.
Solar uptake on homes is going gangbusters many with Tesla batteries as part of it.
In my work I see countless Teslas on the road every day and every major shopping centre has charging facilities, many are free and hooked up to the centres solar panels.

The change is clearly inevitable especially with the investment by major institutions.

The "best" argument to the contrary says maybe in 10 years, however this is a random number that's far enough in the future to make the ICE devotees feel comfortable about their bias.

EVs will continue to penetrate the new car market. Nobody doubts that. But it will be a long time before they are in the majority.

Calling us "ICE devotees" is being dismissive as it an attempt to label us as resistant to change. We are realists, not dreamers.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Tassie f100

A relevent question in regard to the change from I.C.E to electric,is how is the Govt going to replace the huge dollars that is collected in tax and excise on fossil fuels.When the Govt is
collecting a minimum 50c ,litre for fuels how are they going to make that revenue when electicity is at the equivilent of $4-5 per refuel of which the Govt doesn’t really get any of.

Doesn't NZ have a road tax, a charge for every k driven per year?

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by xxx000

I'm not aware of any research or work into improving the efficiency of ICE, are you?
On the other hand there are huge investments into EVs and everything associated with them
Car manufacturers are dropping ICE replacing it with EV or Hybrid.
Sounds to me that you're in denial about both the future and what's happening right now

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect.

If you not aware of any new technology to improve efficiency for Petrol & Diesel engines your hardly worth talking too.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect.

If you not aware of any new technology to improve efficiency for Petrol & Diesel engines your hardly worth talking too.

It's called Confirmation bias, report everything that supports an opinion and ignore everything that doesn't.

[Tassie f100]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Doesn't NZ have a road tax, a charge for every k driven per year?

I don’t know about NZ road tax!but I can be pretty sure the Aust Govt can’t really survive without $billions in fuel related income.

[Vesper Martini]

I've watched this guys videos before - he knows his stuff, this clip seemed very impartial making good for & against points.

Things i took from it.

carmakers are in it to make money (yet many of them struggle without government help)
ICE cars are far more profitable for them & governments I shouldn't need to explain why.

the point about us driving old Honda Civics, people like new things - they Buys pickups because they might get a load of Mulch one day.. sports cars etc

there is a particular person on this forum that brings good arguments to owning a Tesla, but a point from this clip asks could you manage if it was your only car?

its easy for someone that has a collection to fit in an EV

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Doesn't NZ have a road tax, a charge for every k driven per year?

They do for Diesels, not Petrol's & not EV's yet tat I know of..

for Governments to support EV's I believe there will have to be a road tax for them

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

Why do all EV salad munching advocates have to resort to insulting people that don't share their agenda. you need to learn that it has a reverse affect.

If you not aware of any new technology to improve efficiency for Petrol & Diesel engines your hardly worth talking too.

Exactly. These rabid greenies are just way too biased and brainwashed to be taken seriously, and they always spout over dramatic views to get attention.

Until EV's become profitable for manufacturers, then ICE will still continue to sell. EV's are just a money pit, with profit points probably a decade or 2 down the road.

There will come a point where it all changes, but it won't be in the short term like these rabid greenies keep saying it will. Will be a long time before EV's become the majority on the roads.

[Whitey-AMG]

All depends on policy

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40726868

Its likley we will see a quantum shift a decade after this kind of policy takes place - so realistically after 2045 - 2050 we'd expect to see large scale adoption of EV's by all manufacturers and the public globally.

Its on its way - but slowly - as expected.

[FTE217]

Everything that is green, need a good pruning, spring is in the air, malacka's everywhere

[whynot]

The only organisation that I am aware of that is putting serious production dollars into improving efficiency of the ICE is Mazda. In my view, what they have achieved with Skyactiv-X is very impressive. (A personal disclosure, I am reasonably sure that my next car will be a Mazda CX-something...)

That said, after being an electrician for nearly 40 years, electric drive trains and battery storage doesn't phase (pardon the pun) me either. An electric motor will outdo a ICE by any metric one cares to mention. The tricky bit, at present, is the energy storage part.

And, no, thanks for asking, but I prefer steak and potatoes.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by whynot

Well, there you go. I never realised that there was a naughty word in a well known Japanese battery manufacturer ...

lol

like the famous beach in Japan

https://www.surfline.com/surf-report...65fad6a7708dae

this one's on the bucket list to surf, just for the name haha

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

EVs will continue to penetrate the new car market. Nobody doubts that. But it will be a long time before they are in the majority.

Calling us "ICE devotees" is being dismissive as it an attempt to label us as resistant to change. We are realists, not dreamers.

But if we don't put everyone into a category how will we generalize people for being less intelligent than ourselves and talk down to them
Pick a side!

[Sprintey]

Another vote for Mazda, Skyactiv-X blends the ICE motor, part time compression ignition, part time spark ignition, it's pretty amazing tech. 15:1 compression I think?

[jpd80]

Unlike America, we get sodomized on BEV prices due to our currency, import taxes,
luxury tax and a lack of US$7,500 tax credit up front to reduce costs.

Supporting imported BEVs to that level would require support to foreign carmakers
at levels that were once reserved for local carmakers.

[Sprintey]

What's the state of Australian battery tech production? Solar panel production? Lithium production? (S America has 'golden triangle for lithium, mined out of high mountain salt lakes - we have a ton of salt lakes east and south of Kalgoorlie) Rare earth production (Neodymium, Praseodymium) - I know we have one miner that should be able to bring online 10% of the West's supply in these.. what else? I think we have cobalt too...

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

What's the state of Australian battery tech production? Solar panel production? Lithium production? (S America has 'golden triangle for lithium, mined out of high mountain salt lakes - we have a ton of salt lakes east and south of Kalgoorlie) Rare earth production (Neodymium, Praseodymium) - I know we have one miner that should be able to bring online 10% of the West's supply in these.. what else? I think we have cobalt too...

Australia...solar panels nothing now, battery tech apart from some Century.

We used to have Solarex made in Aus. BP bought them out so they could claim the carbon credits funnily enough shortly after the gulf oil spill disaster.

Recently bought 20 100W Solarex panels secondhand. After testing them, they work just as well as new. Quality.

[Crazy Dazz]

Unfortunately there will always be those who like to think they are "superior" because they advocate "new" technologies, and that somehow makes them "modern" and "forward" thinking.

Thing is, Electric cars are nothing new. Electric cars were around long before ICE.
Electric Motors are wonderfully simple beasts, even modern frequency controlled motors are at their heart simplistic.
Look around you, look at industry, look at mining. Electric motors everywhere, and nobody in their right mind would advocate replacing them with ICE.
But see this is where most of the converts get it wrong. They spend all their time jitzing over electric motors, as if they alone have discovered the future.
35 years ago, when I was at Uni, they had a home made electric Mini, that could thrash any ICE powered car you care to name. That never has nor will be the issue.
That's why I don't get excited over some new Electric Mustang (or anything else) with supposedly extraordinary performance. Whilst making powerful electric motors smaller, lighter, and more thermally efficient, is technically noteworthy, its not the issue.

You can't compare the developments, because they are almost diametrically opposite. Fuel for the most part is relatively stagnant. We've cleaned it up a bit, but the fundamental energy density hasn't really improved much. All of the advancement has been in the engines. Whereas with EVs, its the opposite.
The problem has always been the batteries.

The problem is that as children we are given a little penlight, or radio, or gismo, and we marvel at the majesty of the battery. We don't realise that you can do the same thing with two nails and a piece of fruit, and that batteries are, by and large, completely ****.

Lately, the problem has been compounded, because people choose to believe that batteries are powered by magic fairies.
In both cases, we are using chemistry to store energy, and then extract it. Unfortunately the way a battery does it is tremendously inefficient.
We think its somehow better, because the storage ability is self-contained, but that too is inefficient. We'd literally be better off manufacturing synthetic fuel. Our ability to make truly synthetic fuel is limited, but we can do the next best thing which is to use nature for the basic process.

I work in the mining Industry, and this is perhaps the greatest irony of all. The Greenies hate us with a passion. Yet where do you think Lithium comes from? Lithium is one of the most expensive minerals to mine. The concentrations are so low, that if this was copper, you wouldn't even dream of mining at such low grades. It's also a very difficult mineral to process, as the ore is extremely hard and abrasive. And the extraction process uses billions of litres of caustic.
And this is at the current levels of demand for Lithium. I'm not sure we could actually sustain a world completely reliant on battery power.

And there's the other problem. 2 decades ago, NiCad, and Nimh batteries caused a 2nd Nickel boom, resulting in trillions of dollars investment in new low-grade Nickel mines. Most of those remain closed.
The future of electric vehicles depends on the development of the next generation of batteries. So what happens to the quadrillions invested in Lithium?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

Unfortunately there will always be those who like to think they are "superior" because they advocate "new" technologies, and that somehow makes them "modern" and "forward" thinking.

Thing is, Electric cars are nothing new. Electric cars were around long before ICE.
Electric Motors are wonderfully simple beasts, even modern frequency controlled motors are at their heart simplistic.
Look around you, look at industry, look at mining. Electric motors everywhere, and nobody in their right mind would advocate replacing them with ICE.
But see this is where most of the converts get it wrong. They spend all their time jitzing over electric motors, as if they alone have discovered the future.
35 years ago, when I was at Uni, they had a home made electric Mini, that could thrash any ICE powered car you care to name. That never has nor will be the issue.
That's why I don't get excited over some new Electric Mustang (or anything else) with supposedly extraordinary performance. Whilst making powerful electric motors smaller, lighter, and more thermally efficient, is technically noteworthy, its not the issue.

You can't compare the developments, because they are almost diametrically opposite. Fuel for the most part is relatively stagnant. We've cleaned it up a bit, but the fundamental energy density hasn't really improved much. All of the advancement has been in the engines. Whereas with EVs, its the opposite.
The problem has always been the batteries.

The problem is that as children we are given a little penlight, or radio, or gismo, and we marvel at the majesty of the battery. We don't realise that you can do the same thing with two nails and a piece of fruit, and that batteries are, by and large, completely ****.

Lately, the problem has been compounded, because people choose to believe that batteries are powered by magic fairies.
In both cases, we are using chemistry to store energy, and then extract it. Unfortunately the way a battery does it is tremendously inefficient.
We think its somehow better, because the storage ability is self-contained, but that too is inefficient. We'd literally be better off manufacturing synthetic fuel. Our ability to make truly synthetic fuel is limited, but we can do the next best thing which is to use nature for the basic process.

I work in the mining Industry, and this is perhaps the greatest irony of all. The Greenies hate us with a passion. Yet where do you think Lithium comes from? Lithium is one of the most expensive minerals to mine. The concentrations are so low, that if this was copper, you wouldn't even dream of mining at such low concentrations. It's also a very difficult mineral to process, as the ore is extremely hard and abrasive. And the extraction process uses billions of litres of caustic.
And this is at the current levels of demand for Lithium. I'm not sure we could actually sustain a world completely reliant on battery power.

And there's the other problem. 2 decades ago, NiCad, and Nimh batteries caused a 2nd Nickel boom, resulting in trillions of dollars investment in new low-grade Nickel mines. Most of those remain closed.
The future of electric vehicles depends on the development of the next generation of batteries. So what happens to the quadrillions invested in Lithium?

Yep, the English have been using electric milk floats since shortly after the war. Nothing new there.

[Adamz Ghia]

So our electricity grid can’t handle air conditioners in summer. While some people with install solar panels at home, good luck trying to charge your car on a 40 degree summers day in Victoria.